Growth of Indonesian Airlines Strains the Infrastructure


JAKARTA, Indonesia — Indonesian airlines are poised for rapid growth, but a lack of critical infrastructure and trained personnel may keep the industry from reaching anticipated heights, experts say.


The total number of fliers is expected to double within five years, record growth for a nation with a history of poor safety standards.

If improvements do not keep pace with demand, “this growth, which they could take advantage of, will come to a halt,” said Shukor Yusof, an aviation analyst at the credit ratings agency Standard & Poor’s in Singapore.

Last year, 60 million Indonesians took to the skies, a 15 percent increase from 2010, according to the Ministry of Transportation. International passenger traffic in the country grew 23 percent, to eight million.

In 2001, the Ministry of Transportation loosened the rules for starting an airline, in part to help bolster the economy after the Asian financial crisis. The number of operating licenses rose sharply between then and 2004, when the ministry issued a second round of revisions.

According to the Directorate General of Civil Aviation, part of the ministry, the new rules required only two planes for an operator to start a commercial airline, reduced limitations on the type and age of those planes and allowed airlines to deviate from their business plans, encouraging them to explore the market.

At that time, “it’s possible we concentrated more on developing the market and were not so focused on safety concerns,” said Hemi Pamuraharjo, the deputy director for scheduled flight services at the Ministry of Transportation.

Jakarta’s main hub, Soekarno-Hatta International Airport, was built to handle 22 million passengers. Last year, it served more than 50 million, and it is the fastest-growing airport in the world, according to the Airports Council International.

In some places music stations and phone calls interfere with radio frequencies used by airports and aircraft, causing communication breakdowns with the air traffic control authorities.

“They have a very old system,” said one pilot with Lion Air, who spoke on condition of anonymity out of fear that he would lose his job.

Sometimes the air traffic control radar fails, as it did in Bali on July 15, creating delays and potentially dangerous confusion.

“They know who you are, but they don’t know where you are,” the pilot said.

He also said the increase in demand for air travel had created flight crew shortages. Last month he worked more than his allotted 110 airtime hours. “Now, I am working always,” he said.

“Our biggest concern is with airport facilities, crew and human resources,” like air traffic controllers, Mr. Pamuraharjo said.

There are now 18 airlines offering regularly scheduled flights, up from 13 in 2001. Garuda recently spun off Citilink, a low-cost subsidiary, and Lion Air is set to introduce a premium carrier, Batik Air, early next year. And the number of charter airlines has grown 33 percent in just four years.

All are rapidly expanding to take advantage of a middle class that has grown rapidly in the last eight years, to 130 million from 80 million.

“It’s kind of perfect for the airline market, particularly the low-cost segment,” said Brendan Sobie, a senior analyst for Southeast Asia at the Center for Asia Pacific Aviation, a consulting firm.

And in a country of 17,500 islands, flying looks a lot better than the alternatives. Away from the main island of Java, road and rail networks are underdeveloped. Ferry rides often involve dangerous sea crossings on dilapidated ships. Sinkings are common.

Air travel’s increasing popularity and accessibility seem to have emboldened airlines, despite infrastructure problems and overcrowding.

“If my passengers complain about delays, I say, ‘Go by bus, go by train,’ ” said Rusdi Kirana, the chief executive of Lion Air, the low-cost Indonesian carrier. “We need them, and they need us.”

The Malaysian airline Air Asia is rapidly expanding in Indonesia and last month agreed to buy the Indonesian low-cost carrier Batavia Air for $80 million.

“Indonesia is like a planet,” said Tony Fernandes, Air Asia’s chief executive. “There is lots of room to grow.”

Garuda, which went public last year but is majority-owned by the government, plans to increase its fleet to 194 aircraft from 95 by the end of 2015. It had $88 million in profits last year, even as other major carriers in the Asia-Pacific region, like Qantas of Australia and Cathay Pacific of Hong Kong, had an earnings dip.

The most notable growth has come at Lion Air, the largest private Indonesian carrier. It recently signed a record $22.4 billion order for 230 Boeing 737s.

Unlike many carriers in the Asia-Pacific region, Indonesian airlines have concentrated on increasing their domestic share. Garuda says it will cut back on flights to Europe this year because of high costs for fuel and sagging demand but will expand its routes to serve more remote areas in Indonesia.

“For now, there’s a tremendous amount of opportunity to grow the domestic market,” said Mr. Sobie of the Center for Asia Pacific Aviation.

But many airlines face staff shortages, and some have started pushing pilots to fly the maximum allowable number of hours to increase flight frequencies. The Ministry of Transportation has also come under pressure as demand has outstripped the capacity of airports and airlines.

In 2007, an aircraft flown by the low-cost operator Adam Air crashed into the sea off northern Sulawesi Island, killing all 102 aboard. An investigation of the plane’s flight data recorder determined poor maintenance to have been a main cause. Months later, a Boeing 737-400 flown by Garuda overshot a runway in Central Java Province and burst into flames, killing 21 of the 140 on board. The pilot was later convicted of criminal negligence; the sentence was later overturned.

Regulations were tightened in 2008 after a decision by the European Union to ban all Indonesian airlines from entering its airspace from 2007 to 2009 because of lax safety standards. The ban was lifted on only a handful of airlines, including Garuda.

The Ministry of Transportation says it has made strides toward improving the safety record. The Directorate General of Civil Aviation is establishing runway safety teams to monitor airstrips for damage and obstructions. It plans to train as many as 180 new inspectors by the end of the year.

“But implementation needs coordination with other ministries, and of course there is the budget limitation,” said Arfiyanti Samad, a secretary at the directorate. Much of the ministry’s budget of 6 trillion rupiah (more than $630 million) for 2012 will go toward improving airports, she said.

But according to Mr. Yusof of S.& P., the country will need to invest as much as $5 billion in maintenance, repair and infrastructure before 2015, when the region’s aviation sector will come under an “open skies” agreement among members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. “Indonesia as a whole has a lot to do to improve their culture of safety,” he said.

Gerry Soejatman, an airline analyst at Dini Nusa Kusuma, an information technology business that provides satellite service to Indonesia, said that intensifying competition within Indonesia would push local airlines to improve their service and safety records. “There will be a drive to provide a better experience,” he said. “And new technology will provide the edge.”



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