Showing posts with label causes of recession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label causes of recession. Show all posts

Monday, June 1, 2015

Is another Bigger Global Recession on its Way now ?


One of the Most stable country in the world, Canada's economy shrank in the first quarter by a whopping 0.6 per cent. Is this the beginning of a new recession ?
Recessions of course are defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Now we learn today that Canada's economy shrank between January and March, the biggest decline in GDP since 2009, and the first contraction in the last four years. In fact, the economy contracted in all three months. It is even more dramatic when you think that Q4 2014 registered a growth of 2.4 per cent! 

Of course, we don't know yet if this trend continued into April and May, but if it has, as we should find out soon enough, it raises the prospect that we are heading for a yet another recession, and that Canada's economy is not immune to the turmoil facing many countries. Given the problems the rest of the world is having, who knows what this potential recession will look like.
Taking a closer look at the statistics, we see that private sector investment declined dramatically as a result of the oil crisis, and that is certainly having repercussions in other sectors. Consumers are slowing their spending dramatically (slowest level since 2009), and governments are cutting spending as well. Do you see where I am going with this? Where is the growth going to come from in the coming months? 

Exports? Well, today we also learn that the U.S. economy has also shrunk in the first quarter, by 0.7 per cent! This was revised downward from a previously reported gain of 0.2 per cent. With the U.S. economy contracting as well, our exports should also fall.
We seem to be dead in the water.
This is even more startling for two reasons.
First, recall that just last week, the Bank of Canada told us that Canada's economy had stalled, and registered zero growth. Now we learn that the reality is actually worse. The Bank told us as well that Canada's economy would rebound in the second quarter to 1.8 per cent, then to 2.8 per cent in the third quarter and 2.5 per cent in the fourth quarter. These numbers are increasingly looking like pie in the economic sky. These new numbers will probably lead to a decline in interest rates in July.  

Second, most economists were expecting bad news, but not this bad. In fact, in a survey done by Bloomberg, the consensus among economists was for a small but positive growth of about 0.3 per cent. The latest figures, however, are sure to force many economists to rethink the path of Canada's economy in the near and medium future.
If anything, what this shows is that neither the Bank of Canada nor economists really know what's going on. Of course, it could be that the bad economic news in both Canada and the U.S. is the result of bad weather and other minor problems, as many pundits have rushed to the airwaves to say. But what these pundits have failed to do is to take a step back and look at the whole picture. The truth is we have not been doing well since the 2007 crisis. Rather than rethink economics, governments have continued with the same bad policies as before. And now the austerity chickens are coming home to roost.
Where do we go from here? Well these numbers are certainly troubling, but they should convince governments that now is not the time to tighten the belt. In fact, austerity is a contributing factor in this mess. When everyone is not spending, as is the case now, the government has a moral responsibility to step in and spend, and to support Canada's flagging economy. As I have said many times, now is not the time to balance the budget. When your house is on fire, it is not the time to think about which new wallpaper for the dining room: you need to put out the fire first before it spreads and does even more harm.
Finally, well, there is this little thing called an election coming in October. If second-quarter numbers are also negative, as I am prepared to bet, then this spells sure trouble for the Harper government. It means that we will have an election on the heels of bad news. It could possibly be a game-changer.




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Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Are we already in a recession?






Greece recession to enter 6th year, budget shows
The Associated Press
By DEREK GATOPOULOS – 1 minute ago. ATHENS, Greece (AP) — Greece's brutalrecession is set to extend into a sixth year in 2013, when the economy will contract by another 3.8 percent, according to forecasts in the draft budget submitted to Parliament ...
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The Associated Press
Unemployment in eurozone hits record high as recession deepens
Minneapolis Star Tribune
PARIS -- Unemployment in the eurozone hovered at a record 11.4 percent in August, according to data released Monday, underscoring the pain inflicted by the slowing world economy and the financial problems plaguing many of the countries that share the ...
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Minneapolis Star Tribune
Eurozone Manufacturing Data Indicates Region Has 'Fallen Back Into A New ...
Huffington Post
LONDON, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Euro zone manufacturing put in its worst performance in the three months to September since the depths of the Great Recession, with factories hit by falling demand despite cutting prices, a business survey showed on Monday ...
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The Growth Recession Of 2012 And The Presidential Election
Forbes
The components of the revised second quarter GDP report paint a picture of an economy at risk of slipping into a full-blown recession. Consumption growth of 2.0% during the first half was actually somewhat stronger than during 2011. And, a triple in ...
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Bernanke Says Fed Doesn't Expect Return to a Recession in U.S.
Bloomberg
“We see employment, which is one of the key indicators of recession, still growing, so we expect the economy to continue to grow,” Bernanke said in response to audience questions after a speech in Indianapolis. “We're not expecting a recession ...
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3 Signs We're In A New Recession -- And 5 Signs We Aren't
Huffington Post
Breaking news about the economy, everybody: It still stinks. The good news? At least we're not in another recession. Some of you may think we never left the last recession, and that's understandable. Others will ask, who cares? The economy is so lousy ...
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Are we already in a recession?
Deseret News
Sept. 2011, Jose Guillen, sorts recyclable items at a recycling center in Los Angeles. The ranks of the nation's poor have swelled to a record 46.2 million Americans. High numbers in unemployment could put Americans back in another recession. Jae C ...
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Deseret News
Wall Street Traders To Clients: It's Time To Start Preparing For An Obama Victory
Huffington Post
1 and start pulling the country into another recession. The higher taxes and lower spending would total $600 billion. They take effect automatically unless Congress and the White House reach a deal before then. If he's re-elected, Obama will still face ...
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JOHN HUSSMAN: We Are Already In Recession, And The Economists Just Don't ...
Business Insider
In his latest weekly letter, investor John Hussman reiterates his belief that we are already inrecession. In regard to a U.S. recession, keep in mind that the consensus of economic forecasters – not to mention central bankers - has never recognized ...
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KU studies link recession, education opportunities
Emporia Gazette
Their studies looked at the instability caused by the Great Recession and the effect on the educational opportunities for children. The conclusions were that lower-income residents lacked the financial assets to weather the downturn and still have ...
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Monday, October 1, 2012

Global Recession can help savvy new entrepreneurs

Investors eye the 'cliff' as Obama gains in polls
CBS News
"They'll be faced with determining whether we get a recession or not," says Jeff Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial. But investors remember the budget battle in the summer of last year, which ended with the country losing its top credit ...
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Recessionary outlook
Oman Daily Observer
At Credit Agricole bank, economist Frederik Ducrozet commented that "the question which stalks the market is not the recession — a recessionary outlook would hit risky assets such as shares, but would have far less effect on the government bonds." He ...
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Oman Daily Observer
Recession can help savvy new entrepreneurs
Tulsa World
Jeanine Hamilton, owner of the staffing company Hire Partnership, wears a headset while working at her office in downtown Boston. Hamilton was laid off from her job in June 2008 and then started her own business despite the economic downturn. STEVEN ...
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As Spain's recession worsens its tradesmen are swallowing their pride
Telegraph.co.uk (blog)
Who would have thought it? When I first set foot in my golden valley if I'd needed a plumber, electrician or builder to pop round to fix something at the house, I'd have expected to wait. And wait. Now, if so much as a whisper goes round that I need a ...
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Telegraph.co.uk (blog)
Economic Forecast October 2012: Huge Decline, Fundamentals Degrading
Global Economic Intersection
These economic pulses cause some to believe the economy is heading towards arecession – as forecasts use growth rate-of-change to assess economic trends. Further, these cycles are out of phase with the calendar – and the commonly used seasonal ...
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Global Economic Intersection
Global economy: Chances of prolonged recession are high?
Economic Times
Final September surveys of purchasing managers are likely to confirm the euro zone is mired in recession. But Berenberg Bank said that, thanks to the ECB, the 17-nation bloc was close to an inflection point; rebounding growth in narrow money pointed to ...
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Economic Times
Economists in clover as global recession bites
Telegraph.co.uk
Four of the country's leading firms have expanded rapidly, posting annual sales increases of between 12pc and 28pc in their last financial year, according to filings at Companies House. For their directors and founders, it has been a very profitable ...
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Telegraph.co.uk
Hartford Highlights a State's Divide
Wall Street Journal
In the Census report, Hartford joined the ranks of America's most impoverished places. Its 36% poverty rate was higher than other urban centers such as Cleveland, Newark and the Bronx. Before the recession, the poverty rate in this city of 125,000 was ...
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Wall Street Journal
State economy needs a new tailwind, by Steve Norton and Daniel Barrick
The Keene Sentinel
The Great Recession disrupted much of the New Hampshire economy, as it has across the country. But it is a mistake to assume that the recession is the sole reason for the recent slowdown in the state's economic engine, or that, once the impacts of the ...
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Recession worsens brownfields backlog in WisconsinLong after a red icicle’s discovery, industrial pollution haunts a Lake Michigan neighborhood

Sunday, September 30, 2012

German Bunds Rise 2nd Week on Signs Europe Headed for Recession









KU studies link recession, education opportunities
Kansas City Star
While the recession also depleted middle- and upper-income earners, the studies found those groups likely were able to maintain financial advantages that kept access to a college degree within reach. However, the studies concluded that recession ...
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Studies link recession, education opportunities
Sacramento Bee
The reports, released earlier in September, looked at the instability caused by the Great Recessionand the effect on children's educational opportunities. The conclusions were that lower-income residents lacked the financial assets to weather the ...
See all stories on this topic »
German Bunds Rise 2nd Week on Signs Europe Headed for Recession
Bloomberg
German bunds rose for a second week as signs the euro area is headed for a recession boosted demand for safer assets and fueled speculation the European Central Bank will keep interest rates at a record low. The securities gained for a sixth quarter ...
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Colorado 'Dairy Recession' Means Rising Milk Prices
CBS Local
Experts – along with local dairymen, some of whom are just now recovering from the “Great Dairy Recession” of 2009 – and today face historically high feed costs – say those increases must continue to create a break-even scenario for dairies. While many...
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CBS Local
ROSENBERG: A Crucial Economic Indicator Just Sank To A Level That ...
Business Insider
Economists often note that durable goods orders is one of the more volatile economic indicators that we get every month. However, there wasn't much sugar-coating anyone could do to the Thursday's report that showed durable goods orders plunged 13 ...
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Business Insider
Battleground States / Great Recession seems endless in Nevada Candidates in ...
Buffalo News
HENDERSON, Nev. - John McGinty's little slice of the American dream includes a family of four boys, ownership of a sports bar that fills up with Buffalo Bills fans on every autumn Sunday and a mortgage on a suburban Las Vegas house that's worth less ...
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Museum Attendance Resists Recession
WETM-TV
Museum management at the Rockwell Museum says even during a recession, attendance hasn't slowed down. The American Association of Museums says 70 percent of its museums were under economic stress last year because of increased expenses.
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Recession worsens brownfields backlog in Wisconsin
Green Bay Press Gazette
A 2008 state health consultation found 'well-worn footpaths' and many holes in the fence leading to the former Hynite and Peter Cooper glue factories, part of a 260-acre complex of brownfields in Oak Creek's Carrollville neighborhood. The fence still ...
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Easy on the stimulus, green shoots are emerging
Telegraph.co.uk
As the extra Jubilee holiday probably took about 0.5pc off the official measure of GDP, this latest estimate is more consistent with a flat or slowly growing economy than one mired in double-dip recession. This latest revision is also a reminder that ...
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Telegraph.co.uk

SriLankan Airlines to trim Europe flights, focus on Asia, Middle East





Sept 29, 2012 (LBO) - State-run SriLankan airline will trim loss-making flights to recession-hit Europe and focus on profitable routes closer to home, top officials told shareholders, as the airline lost money for the fourth straight year.

Chairman Nishantha Wickremasinghe said due to recession in Europe and competition from other airlines yields from European destinations was less than satisfactory and benefits from cabin upgrades were yet to come.
Chief executive Kapila Chandrasena said the airline would increase frequencies and capacity to profitable routes in the Middle East, Indian subcontinent and the far east while 'rationalising; capacity in Europe where operating costs are significantly higher.

"This is especially prudent in the context of the economic crisis that is sweeping Europe at present and is likely to lead to a slowdown in tourism from Europe," he told shareholders in the annual report.

The global airline industry is getting transformed from de-regulation in the US and Europe where state-run airlines - some of which were expropriated from citizens after World War II - operated with the help of restrictions, keeping prices high and blocking innovation.

The emergence of citizen-owned budget airlines in particular had made travel cheaper to ordinary citizens starting from Europe but the trend is rapidly gathering pace in Asia.
In the year to March 2012 SriLankan lost 19 billion rupees and was bailed out with a 15.4 billion rupees capital injection from tax payers.



Chandrasena said the airline planned to push up yield by aggressively marketing its business class, expand code-share deals with other airlines and change its 'Air Taxi' seaplane operations to end losses.

The airline also planned to increase third party engineering services, expand ground handling and cargo.






SriLankan Airlines to trim Europe flights, focus on Asia, Middle East
Lanka Business Online
Sept 29, 2012 (LBO) - State-run SriLankan airline will trim loss-making flights to recession-hit Europe and focus on profitable routes closer to home, top officials told shareholders, as the airlinelost money for the fourth straight year. Chairman ...
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Airlines Improving Connections Through Own Growth
Journal of Turkish Weekly
Spokesman Davor Janusic told SETimes that the airline encountered difficult stretches because of the global recession. "This is the reason why some certainly had expected stagnation, and some of them to a fall of passenger numbers in relation to last ...
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Monday, September 24, 2012

Recession worsens brownfields backlog in Wisconsin



OAK CREEK — Sarah Preciado, a lifelong resident of the Carrollville neighborhood, remembers how it was once a bustling place. Her great-grandfather was the first Mexican worker at the glue factory that was across Fifth Avenue. Her grandfather, who planted the pear and peach trees at her house, worked there too.
But the glue factory is long gone, along with a chemical plant, aluminum smelter and other factories from the past century. Now dilapidated buildings in overgrown lots sprawl across 260 acres, where the soil and groundwater are polluted with arsenic, chromium, lead and other chemicals, and some fences gape from vandals’ gashes.
Preciado said the abandoned properties have blighted her neighborhood.
“Now I worry about my kids,” she said. “This area has changed so much.”
Known by its historic name, Carrollville, the site — on Lake Michigan’s edge, just south of Milwaukee — is one of the largest of Wisconsin’s brownfields, properties that are abandoned or underused because of contamination or the threat of it.
Contamination at brownfields usually doesn’t rise to the level of Superfund sites, so they don’t get Superfund-level attention. Still, they may harm people and the environment, reduce tax revenue, keep communities from developing and attract vandals and dumping.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates there are anywhere from 450,000 to 1 million brownfields nationwide. But that count is far from firm — EPA’s database lists just 17,000 records — and the agency doesn’t track the nation’s progress on brownfields.

Sarah Preciado has lived in this house, in Oak Creek's Carrollville neighborhood, her whole life. Her great-grandfather and grandfather were the first Mexican workers at the glue factory across the street. Now the factories are closed and fenced off, the bustle is gone, and Preciado says the complex has blighted the neighborhood. Kate Golden/Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism
The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources estimates there are 10,000 brownfields in Wisconsin, with a disproportionate number in poor and rural neighborhoods — the places least likely to have the resources to clean them up.
Here, in what’s sometimes called the industrial rust belt, many of these sites date back to the early 1900s, during the state’s early manufacturing history.
But while the state has made some progress with the backlog in the past two decades, the situation may be worsening.
A “startling” number of plant closings during the recent recession, 109 since 2009, has created “an entirely new generation of brownfields,” according to a 2011 DNR grant application for federal brownfields funding.
DNR’s brownfields chief, Darsi Foss, said progress is being made. The agency has a new initiative to deal with newly closing plants before they become 20-year-old abandoned sites.
But it will take decades to find and clean up all the brownfields.
“Resources are tough to come by right now,” she said.

A 2008 state health consultation found "well-worn footpaths" and many holes in the fence leading to the former Hynite fertilizer and Peter Cooper glue factories, part of a 260-acre complex of brownfields in Oak Creek's Carrollville neighborhood. The fence still has plenty of holes, four years later. Photo Sept. 11, 2012. Kate Golden/Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism
Investigation reveals flaws in system
The Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism was among five nonprofit news organizations probing federal and state agencies’ handling of brownfields.
The investigation, coordinated by the Investigative News Network, found that despite more than $1.5 billion in federal grants and loans doled out over 19 years, brownfields cleanups nationwide remain hobbled by limited funds, a lack of federal oversight, endless waits for approvals and dense bureaucratic processes that make it difficult for poor and sparsely populated neighborhoods to compete against larger and middle-class communities with the means to figure them out.
In a written response, the EPA said the program “is not intended to address all of the brownfield sites in the U.S.”
Interactive map

Click to browse brownfields in a new window.
Federal data neither fully assess the problem nor how Wisconsin compares to other states. The EPA generally only tracks the brownfields it has funded, leaving out thousands of sites that have been identified by state and local governments.
The EPA doesn’t audit the data, which are reported by grant recipients.
A Center analysis found that even the limited information in EPA’s database is riddled with errors and omissions. For instance, many of the latitudes and longitudes described locations in China and Kyrgyzstan.
The Office of the Inspector General criticized EPA’s “lack of oversight and reliance on environmental professionals’ self-certifications” in a 2011 report. That approach means contamination at sites might not be fully assessed, which could lead to “improper decisions about appropriate uses of brownfields properties.”
“Ultimately, threats to human health and the environment could go unrecognized,” the report said.

Despite the no-trespassing sign, it's easy enough to get through poorly maintained fences to the former Hynite fertilizer factory, owned by Fifth Property LLC, as vandals have shown. The soil and groundwater are contaminated with lead, arsenic, chromium and other toxic chemicals, according to the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. Photo Sept. 11, 2012. Kate Golden/Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism
Factories left contamination
From the early 1900s until the 1980s, manufacturing at Carrollville included not only the glue and gelatin plant but a dye and chemical factory, a fertilizer factory, an aluminum smelter, a distillery, a coal-tar factory and a wood-treating site.
Despite living across the street from the complex her whole life, Preciado hadn’t heard much about the pollution there. Most of it is hidden behind greenery and fences; DNR project manager Eric Amadi guessed that was why there had been little public outcry.
At one end of the site, where the former Peter Cooper glue and Hynite fertilizer factories are, the present public risk from the chemicals is “indeterminate,” according to a 2008 state health consultation, “but limited field screening and the history of past industrial activities suggest substantial environmental contamination may be present.”
The report noted the presence of many physical hazards there and “well-worn footpaths” leading through holes in the fence. The biggest public health hazards were to trespassers.
“Kids were going in there after school to hang out,” Amadi said.
The problems in the entire complex have included what was known as the “arsenic landfill” — most of which was removed by the EPA, though some arsenic remains; toxic coal tar that was oozing out of the ground; various cancer-causing chemicals, both vaporous and persistent; and unknown chemical compounds with uncertain health effects. At one point, a monitoring well installed by DNR dissolved, Amadi said.
The aquifer, which fortunately flows toward Lake Michigan and not toward public wells, will probably never be usable, according to DNR.
The land has been bought and sold and resold. Amadi is working with seven owners, who have displayed varying levels of interest in cleaning up the contamination.
The cleanup is progressing, to varying degrees at each site. Old fire insurance maps, corporate filings and other records have largely straightened out who is responsible.
The city of Oak Creek has bought some of the land and plans to transform the space. But its vision of green space and mixed use is years away.
Four years after the state health assessment, grapevines have replaced some of the barbed wire, while the old Hynite factory on the hill is colorful with graffiti.
Parts of the site have been listed on the Internet as a point of interest for ghost hunters and urban spelunkers.
Across Fifth Avenue from the defunct Wabash Alloys aluminum smelter on a sunny August day, Milan “Mike” Zoric was painting the old Bender Park Pub. Like Preciado, he remembers this place booming decades ago. Unlike Preciado, he was betting the area would come back.
But three weeks later, Zoric was gone. Maria “Chayo” Cobian, who owns the building, said he was the second renter not to work out recently. Like Preciado, her cousin, Cobian is hoping the area will bounce back. She thought redeveloping the Carrollville site would help.
“I mean, look how ugly it is!” she said, gesturing toward the old smelter.








 


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Investors made money buying after 2 previous Fed stimulus plans. Why they ...
Chicago Tribune
They expect them to fall this quarter from a year earlier, the first drop since just after the GreatRecession ended 3½ years ago. "The market seems like it's climbing on central bank intervention rather than fundamentals," says Gary Flam, chief stock ...
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Mr. Mental Recession
New York Times (blog)
But what really boggles my mind is the Romney campaign's evident belief that it gains credibility by rolling out Phil “Mental Recession” Gramm as a spokesman. Gramm is best known these days for dismissing the risks to the economy when a recession was ...
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Gasoline Purchases Plummeting: Another Recession Indicator?
Seeking Alpha
There are enough analysts believing the USA is in, or about to be in, a recession. These informed opinions need to be taken seriously as the economy remains so weakly expanding that only small movements in growth could produce the criteria of a ...
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India survived recession because of banking sector: Bansal
Indian Express
Union Minister for Parliamentary Affairs and Water Resources Pawan Kumar Bansal assured the banking sector that he would take up their demands, while addressing a gathering at the sixth triennial circle general council meeting of the State Bank of ...
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Wasted Places: Recession worsens brownfields backlog in Wisconsin
River Towns
Wasted Places: Recession worsens brownfields backlog in Wisconsin. OAK CREEK -- Sarah Preciado, a lifelong resident of the Carrollville neighborhood, remembers how it was once a bustling place. Her great-grandfather was the first Mexican worker at the ...
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US could slide into recession, economist says in UGA talk
Online Athens
The country could soon stagger into another recession, according to an economist with one of the nation's largest banks. Americans with jobs are having a harder and harder time making ends meet after five years of no pay raises, said Gregory Miller ...
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Payday Cash Loan - A Great Assist to improve symptoms of Financial Recession
Twin Cities Indymedia
Payday Cash Loan - A Great Assist to improve symptoms of Financial Recession. Submitted by mmpayday on Sun, 09/23/2012 - 10:10. Long Lasting Instant Loans - Cash Enable for Long Period Of Time. The loan may possibly be utilized as what ever ...
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Recession worsens brownfields backlog in Wisconsin
WisconsinWatch.org
Ariana Preciado, 7, and her brother Aidan, 4, are the fifth generation of their family to live in Carrollville. Their mother, Sarah Preciado, says the neighborhood has deteriorated since the factories shut down in the 1980s. Kate Golden/Wisconsin ...
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WisconsinWatch.org
Hunger a big issue even as recession eases
Aspen Times
Kim Doyle Wille Courtesy photo A food bank in the midvalley attracted a long line of residents last winter. While the demand for food pantries has eased this summer, volunteers working on hunger issues expect numbers to climb again this fall offseason.
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[COMMENTARY] In Modern Recession: Let Them Eat Apples (IPhone 5 that is)
ForexTV.com
[COMMENTARY] In Modern Recession: Let Them Eat Apples (IPhone 5 that is). FXWirePrp Headlines. S&P 500 UNOFFICIALLY CLOSES DOWN 0.38 POINTS, OR 0.03 PERCENT, AT 1,459.88 - September 21 12 4:18 GMT. NASDAQ UNOFFICIALLY...
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